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Automotive Market Factors Should Be Taken Into Account In Metal Demand Forecasting
Oct 16, 2017

Any metal prediction must take into account automotive factors, because 27% of the world's aluminum and zinc, 15% of nickel, 14% of copper, 16% of steel, 44% of platinum, 79% of palladium and 18% of rhodium are used to produce cars.

However, it is difficult to analyze the car sales market at present. Whether developed or developing countries, at least from the latest data to see the future trend is not clear.

In September, auto sales declined for the sixth month in a row, but New Zealand car sales rose.

In 2016, the United States sold 17 million 550 thousand cars. September car sales also increased, even without considering the losses from Hurricane Harvey in 500 thousand, hurricane Eyre, car loss caused by the loss of 200 thousand cars and is not clear the California fire caused by car. Most of the damaged vehicles have not been replaced, because many families are spending money on basic life rather than buying cars. Even so, Ford's car sales increased by 8.9% in September, while TOYOTA's car increased by 14.9%. The big replacement car boom will happen in the future.

From Asia, China's auto sales in September were 2 million 710 thousand, an increase of 5.66%. India's car sales increased by 11.32% (6.86% of car sales). Auto sales in Pakistan have increased by 27% (although the overall market is not large). But Vietnam's car sales fell by 20% last month.

Before making the metal consumption prospects for automobiles, it needs to be pointed out that this prediction is short term because the technology is developing too fast. For example, in conjunction with the Russian Research Institute of Utah State University is the development of ultra light aluminum, a floating in the water on the metal, which will undoubtedly make the car lighter, more conducive to improve fuel efficiency, at the same time for the unfortunate fall into the lake or river in the car is a good news.

In addition, last month, Houston announced, is $2 million 100 thousand and the University of Virginia, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Fiat Chrysler and Johnson Matthey jointly developed a catalyst under low temperature environment, the aim is to get rid of platinum and palladium on and pay the high cost to buy these precious metals.

Despite the different developments in the world, it is important to remember that the automotive industry is becoming more and more important to metals.

Simona Gambarini, an analyst at SimonaGambarini, said that the demand for copper in the auto industry is on the rise. By 2030, electric vehicles will increase copper consumption by 927 thousand tons per year, equivalent to 4.5% of all copper consumption.

Steel accounts for about 50% of the car weight (2015 accounted for 54%), although the future car more lightweight, but in 2025 will still account for 47% of the vehicle weight. In addition to iron ore, the change in the demand for cars has a significant impact on zinc and nickel.


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