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Institutions Optimistic About The Trend Of Gold
Nov 03, 2017

The first three quarters, by reducing the supply effect, part of the metal product prices rose sharply. Recently, by the impact of a stronger dollar, the industry is expected in November prices will shock down. Due to the interest rate hike in the United States has been digested more fully, the gold price decline will not be too large, the price of gold or out of bad out of the market.


Fluctuation or increase of copper price


Since the beginning of 2017, in the multi factors upstream copper fast support. The first three quarters of SHFE copper closing price average price of 47926.58 yuan / ton, up 30.63%; three quarter SHFE copper closing price average price of 50219.54 yuan / ton, up 9.36%. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said, 2017 global refined copper market supply shortage of 15.1 million tons, 2018 years is expected to supply the shortage of 10.4 million tons; downstream operating rate, 9 month copper foil industry in consumption season, enterprises operating performance, operating rate is 73.98%, rose 5.22%, rose 2.79% better than expected.


Insiders said that, in the macro aspect, there are two main potential bad copper futures in November: first, the dollar index continues to strengthen; two, China's macroeconomic data is stable and weak. Fundamentals, the supply side heating period, demand steadily declining gradually reflected, even an important support round copper prices -- inventory factors that could change in November, if the dominant stock turned down by the rise in advance, early support will turn to restrain. Therefore, the copper market is entering a stage of adjustment, it is expected that copper gravity will shake down in November, due to a large amount of funds to participate in short-term, copper price fluctuation material amplification.


Data show that in the three quarter LME zinc average price of 2962 U.S. dollars / ton, LME lead average price of 2354 U.S. dollars / ton, respectively, an increase of 31% and 25%, respectively, up 13.64% and 8.58% respectively. Huatai Securities believes that after entering in 2017, overseas mining is still in the production cycle, the actual production of new small, continuous shortage of supply of zinc concentrate in high probability, the profitability of listed companies is expected to continue to improve. Shanghai nonferrous metals network survey shows that the downstream electric bicycle and automobile battery dealer inventory is at a low level, is expected to have replenishment demand in November, or lead to a certain role in supporting the lead price.


Gold falling space limited


Data show that in the three quarter of this year, the international gold price rose more than 3%, London spot gold price was more than 1340 U. S. dollars / ounce.  The first three quarters of the Shanghai gold exchange gold spot price of 276 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.4%.


Benefit from the rising price of gold, the listed company's three quarter results beautiful. Wind statistics show that in the first three quarters, the relevant listed companies achieved net profit of 4 billion 421 million yuan, an increase of 30.16%.  However, the U. S. dollar, Diego stock market impact of innovation and other factors, the international price of gold began showing down trend in mid September, all the way down to a minimum of $1262.8 / ounce, a record so far this year, the largest single month decline. After entering October, the price of gold gradually picked up, once again stepped on the high of $1300 / ounce, as of October 30th closing, COMEX gold price closed at 1277.40 U.S. dollars / ounce.


Insiders said that the United States in September inflation data poor performance, lower the Fed's interest rate hike expectations at the end, leading to the dollar was diving, the price of gold opportunity to break through $1300 / ounce mark.  Subsequently, due to the British recession negotiations triggered by the weakening of the pound, as well as the probability of the Hawks elected the next chairman of the Federal Reserve rose, all the dollar index to boost, so that the price of gold again concussion down.


In terms of physical gold demand, the world's largest gold consumer in the fourth quarter of the year, China and India will usher in many festivals, so the four quarter is generally the consumption season of physical gold. Statistical data from a historical perspective, the fourth quarter of the Chinese gold demand will increase.  According to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2017, China's total production of gold 313.089 tons, compared with the same period last year, 34.709 tons of production, down 9.98%. In the first three quarters of 2017, the actual consumption of gold in China was 815.89 tons, an increase of 15.49% compared with the same period last year.


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